Steel prices may rise steadily or slightly in March

In the spring of 2017 and 2018, domestic steel prices have experienced a sharp decline trend, including a sharp fall of 800-1000 yuan in the spring of 2017 and 500-700 yuan in the Spring Festival of 2018. Will the story of a sharp fall in steel prices in the spring of 2019 be repeated? The author makes some analysis and prediction from the following aspects.

1. The cost rises, the profit of the steel mill is reduced, and the risk is released.

2. The steel output is higher than that of the same period last year, but the total amount can be controlled.

3. The stock volume of steel market is expected to be the same as the same period last year. The inventory structure has advantages and the pressure of building materials inventory is relatively small.

4. The demand for construction steel is expected to release rapidly.

So what is the trend of steel price in March?
Conclusion: The steel market environment is better than the same period last year, and the price of steel is mainly stable. With the gradual improvement of the macroeconomic and policy environment, substantial progress has been made in Sino-US trade and stronger demand release than last year, the market mentality tends to be cautious and optimistic, supporting market prices.

At the same time, although the overall steel output has increased, the total amount can be controlled. Although the total inventory is on the high side, the pressure of building materials inventory is less than the previous year, and most of the inventory is concentrated in the hands of large households and steel mills, which is conducive to market deduction. Moreover, the overall cost level of steel this Spring Festival is higher than that of last year, and the profit level of steel mills is lower than that of the same period last year, which releases certain price risks. Therefore, in March this year, the domestic steel market environment is better than the same period last year, the overall price is less likely to fall again, and the possibility of steel prices stability and small-scale rise is greater.