After experiencing the double impact of the Waste Banknote Ordinance and the implementation of the GST (Goods and Services Tax), India's economy is now expected to resume rapid growth in the second half of 2019 after the general election. Although the fiscal deficit may put pressure on public investment to some extent, the continued advancement of a series of infrastructure projects may support steel demand growth of more than 7% in 2019 and 2020.
It is expected that in 2019 and 2020, the steel demand of Asian developing countries excluding China will grow by 6.5% and 6.4% respectively, becoming the fastest growing region in the global steel industry. In ASEAN, infrastructure will support demand for steel.
Under the dual influence of economic restructuring and trade tension, China's investment growth has slowed down, manufacturing performance has been weak, and steel demand growth will continue to slow down. The moderate stimulus policy launched by the Chinese government has effectively alleviated the economic slowdown in 2018. In 2019, the Chinese government may step up its stimulus efforts, and steel demand is expected to boost.
In 2020, with the gradual weakening of stimulus, China's steel demand will decline slightly.
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