"Golden nine silver ten" is not inevitable for API 5L X42 PSL1 plate

"Golden Nine Silver Ten" is actually a time concept. The weather in September and October is often conducive to construction, leading to a sharp increase in API 5L X42 PSL1 plate and so on steel demand, and making the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" a traditional peak season for the steel market of China. However, from historical experience, the "golden nine silver ten" is not an inevitable phenomenon in the steel market, and strong demand does not necessarily lead to a rise in API 5L X42 PSL1 plate and so on steel prices.

Judging from the monthly API 5L X42 PSL1 plate price trend in the five years from 2015 to 2019, the API 5L X42 PSL1 plate price rose the most in August, with 4 times; the API 5L X42 PSL1 plate price increase in September only occurred in 2019, and the API 5L X42 PSL1 plate price increase in October only occurred in 2016 And 2018. The core reason why API 5L X42 PSL1 plate prices rose the most in August is that the market will form expectations of improved demand in September and October in August, which will drive API 5L X42 PSL1 plate prices to rise. In September and October, if there is no strong demand support, API 5L X42 PSL1 plate prices are generally difficult to get out of the upward trend.

Judging from the operation of the steel market this year, the trend of high output and high inventory will continue in the second half of the year. Third, in the second half of the year, social API 5L X42 PSL1 plate stocks and steel mill stocks are expected to increase by 20% to 30% compared to the same period in previous years, and destocking pressure still exists. Finally, from a macro perspective, demand will remain at a relatively high level. However, compared with the same period in previous years, both the overall economic growth rate and investment growth rate will be low in the second half of the year. It is expected that there will be less than expected demand release. However, considering that cost support is still strong, API 5L X42 PSL1 plate prices are unlikely to fall sharply in the short term.