Analysis on the 2011 steel marketing
There are several key factors which influence the Chinesesteel marketing.
First,the steel price rising underpowered.Because,the government invest a large amount of money in building express railways and security room construction,But because China's express railways construction belongs to deficit spending,so it has counteracted the steel demand of security room construction to a certain extent.
Second, the high inventory situation continues.Although we do a great efforts to save energy and emission reduction in 2010.But in 2011, the countries' energy conservation and emission reduction 'policy is not so clear and at present, the steel prices keep rising.Under this circumstance,the steel production capacity will release in early 2011, but the inventory will still increaserapidly at a certain extent.
Third,the pressure of upward tendency cost pressure is increased.In 2010 steel materialsmarket prices continued to rise, meanwhile, duo to the U.S. dollar devaluation and liquidity, the steel raw material prices will continue to rise in this year and this will influence the Chinese steel marketing enormously.
Fourth, the steel export situation is not optimistic.Because the international economic recovery is still relatively slowly, the demand for steel in North America,European and Asian markets decreased and the prices declining. The spreads between domestic prices and export price reduced, international trade protectionism and the effect of exchange rate and other factors,these lead to China steel exports situation is still not optimistic.
At last,macroeconomic policy will influence the movements of the steel market directly.In 2011 the government change their goal from "protect growth,cure inflation" ( in2010) into "cure inflation, protect growth".Although it just simply changed a position,the emphasis has been obvious turning point.In order to control inflation,the liquidity squeeze has become the dominant macroeconomic policy, this is a great pressure to the steel markets where needs a large number of the flow of funds.
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